Black Swan Events: How to Prepare for the Unpredictable

History has been shaped by black swan events: unpredictable, rare occurrences with massive and far-reaching consequences.

These events catch the world off guard, leaving chaos in their wake.

Think the COVID-19 pandemic, which changed life overnight.

Or the September 11th terrorist attacks, though unimaginable beforehand, reshaped the geopolitical landscape—and air travel—forever.

While we can’t predict the next black swan event, we can prepare for its impact.

In this post, we’ll examine four looming scenarios that could become the next black swan event—and how to prepare for each.

What Is a Black Swan Event?

The term “black swan” was popularized by Nassim Nicholas Taleb to describe events with certain characteristics:

1. Rare and hard to predict.
2. High in impact, with widespread consequences.
3. Often only understood in hindsight.

While black swan events are unpredictable by nature, preparing for their potential outcomes is both possible and critical.

1. Cyber Warfare

Cybersecurity threats have been escalating, and the stakes have never been higher.

In late December 2024, Chinese state-sponsored hackers breached the United States Treasury Department's computer systems, accessing unclassified documents through a compromised third-party cybersecurity service provider.

According to the Treasury:

Hackers gained access to a key used by the vendor to secure a cloud-based service used to remotely provide technical support for Treasury Departmental Offices (DO) end users. With access to the stolen key, the threat actor was able to override the service’s security, remotely access certain Treasury DO user workstations, and access certain unclassified documents maintained by those users.

The Department of Homeland Security's 2025 Homeland Threat Assessment highlights the increasing risk of disruptive and destructive cyberattacks targeting critical infrastructure, emphasizing the need for enhanced cybersecurity measures.

As we approach 2025, experts predict a rise in sophisticated cyberattacks, including those leveraging artificial intelligence and quantum computing, which could potentially compromise the security of critical systems.

When it comes to cyberattacks, America’s electric grid is particularly at risk. According to a 2024 report, over 70% of United States utility companies experienced cyberattacks in 2024.

We’ve talked at great length in our Survival Scout articles about how much of the grid relies on outdated infrastructure, making it highly susceptible to failure.

Bad actors don’t need to shut down the entire grid to cause chaos. Targeting just a few key substations could lead to cascading failures that would leave millions without power.

To make matters worse, the United States government’s response to grid vulnerabilities has been slow and reactive.

In a scenario where the grid collapses due to a cyberattack, the average citizen would face immediate shortages of food, water, and essential services.

For families, this means being completely self-reliant until help arrives—if it arrives at all.

Here’s how you can prepare for an event like this:

• Invest in power solutions. A solar generator, like the 3300 Solar Generator System, can keep essential devices running when the grid fails.
• Protect your electronics. EMP-proof gear safeguards critical equipment from electromagnetic pulses, whether a cyberattack or solar flare.
• Have backup communications. Two-way radios or satellite phones ensure you can stay in contact with loved ones.

2. Natural Disasters: The Wrath of Mother Nature

Mother Nature has a way of reminding us who’s in charge.

From volcanic eruptions to extreme weather events, the impact of natural disasters is often far-reaching and devastating.

Scientists are sounding the alarm on an increased likelihood of catastrophic events, such as massive volcanic eruptions.

Eruptions can disrupt global air travel for days, blanketing neighboring countries in ash, and send particles into the stratosphere, where they can linger for months or even years.

Events like these can trigger chain reactions, including failed crops, transportation disruptions, and even a phenomenon known as volcanic winter—global cooling caused by sunlight being blocked by ash.

But it’s not just volcanoes. In recent years, hurricanes have grown stronger and wetter, while droughts have parched farmlands, disrupting food supplies.

These disasters don’t just wreak havoc on infrastructure—they uproot lives.

Being prepared means recognizing that these threats are no longer hypothetical. Whether it’s an unexpected eruption, a massive storm, or unrelenting heatwaves, you need a plan.

Here’s how to prepare:

• Build emergency kits. Every household should have a well-stocked emergency kit that includes water filtration systems, emergency survival food, a first aid kit, flashlights, extra batteries, and basic tools. These essentials will keep you self-sufficient for days or even weeks.
• Fortify your home. Prepare your home to withstand nature’s worst. Seal windows with weather-resistant strips to prevent water and wind damage. Reinforce doors and garage entrances to keep them secure during storms. If you live in hurricane-prone areas, consider storm shutters or impact-resistant glass. In wildfire-prone regions, create defensible spaces by clearing flammable vegetation around your property.
• Have a bug-out plan. Sometimes, staying put isn’t an option. Plan multiple escape routes and familiarize yourself with evacuation protocols in your area. Pack a go-bag for each family member with essentials: clothing, personal hygiene items, portable chargers, medications, and copies of important documents. Ensure your vehicle is always fueled and ready to go in case of an evacuation order. Read The Missing Link in Your Preparedness Plan for more tips.
• Understand the risks in your area. Know the natural disasters most likely to impact where you live. Are you near a fault line? In a flood zone? On the slopes of a dormant volcano? Tailor your preparedness strategies to the unique threats your region faces.
• Don’t forget mental resilience! Surviving a natural disaster isn’t just about physical supplies, it’s also about staying calm and focused during chaos. Practice emergency drills with your family so everyone knows their role in a crisis. Familiarity breeds confidence when it matters most.

3. Dirty Nukes and Port Vulnerabilities

The risk of a “dirty nuke” being smuggled into an American port is more than just a plotline in spy novels.

Missing nuclear material from conflict zones, such as Ukraine, has raised concerns about the potential for catastrophic attacks.

A dirty bomb designed to spread radioactive material could devastate a major city, leaving lasting economic, environmental, and health impacts.

Ports, which are the lifelines of trade, are particularly vulnerable due to the sheer volume of shipments and the difficulty of inspecting every single one.

If such a device were detonated, the ripple effects would be felt nationwide.

Here’s what you can do to prepare:

• Get radiation safety gear. Equip yourself with radiation dosimeters, potassium iodide tablets, and protective clothing to minimize exposure. 
• Have secure shelter options. Underground bunkers or reinforced basements can shield your family during fallout scenarios.

4. A New Pandemic Lockdown

Recently, California Governor Gavin Newsom declared a state of emergency over a surge in bird flu cases, raising concerns about the state’s potential return to strict, COVID-era policies.

While the official response includes allocating more government funding to combat the virus, many are questioning whether such measures truly address the root of the issue—or if they merely expand government control.

And then there is Disease X.

In late 2024, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) faced a severe health crisis in Kwango Province, initially termed "Disease X" due to its unknown origins.

Subsequent investigations by the World Health Organization (WHO) identified the cause as a severe form of malaria, exacerbated by acute malnutrition and respiratory infections, including influenza and COVID-19.

The WHO has signaled their readiness to impose new lockdowns if necessary.

A new pandemic could bring fresh waves of economic strain, societal unrest, and supply chain breakdowns. The question is: are you ready for another extended period of isolation?

Here’s how to prepare for this possibility:

• Stock long-term food supplies. Emergency food kits, like our 3-Month Emergency Food Supply, ensure you and your family have enough food.
• Learn self-reliance skills: Grow your own food with heirloom seeds, make herbal remedies, and practice home healthcare to reduce dependence on external systems.

Remember friends, the only certainty is uncertainty. Do what you can today to prepare for the unforeseen tomorrow.

In liberty, 

Elizabeth Anderson