The 2020 pandemic exposed just how fragile our food systems are.
Panic-buying emptied shelves, supply chains collapsed, and food shortages left millions scrambling for basic necessities.
By 2021, disruptions to global markets and local production pushed prices higher and made access to essentials even harder.
As we enter 2025, new threats are putting food security at even greater risk.
Extreme weather’s impact on food security is a given, but it’s far from the only concern.
What are the top threats to food security we’re watching?
Armed conflicts, water scarcity, the global war on farmers, and cyberattacks are converging to disrupt food production and distribution on an unprecedented scale.
In this week’s Survival Scout, we’re exploring how these forces jeopardize our food supply—and why it’s more important than ever to prepare for the unexpected.
Armed Conflicts
Armed conflicts can have a serious impact on global food security.
Wars destroy essential food production systems.
Warring factions often plunder enemy food supplies, destroy farms and livestock, and devastate agricultural infrastructure.
And if you think that this only impacts locals caught up in the conflict, think again.
The ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine has disrupted global food markets in unprecedented ways.
Together, these two nations account for nearly 30% of the world’s wheat exports, making them critical suppliers for countries in Africa, the Middle East, and Asia.
Since the conflict began in early 2022, wheat prices have soared, leaving vulnerable nations struggling to secure affordable grain.
Russia’s blockade of Ukrainian ports has halted the export of millions of tons of wheat and other grains.
Although some shipments have resumed under fragile agreements, logistical challenges and continued attacks on agricultural infrastructure have severely limited Ukraine’s capacity to export food.
But food insecurity can also fuel violence.
The Arab Spring uprisings of 2011, for example, were partly triggered by skyrocketing food prices in the Middle East and North Africa.
When people struggle to access basic necessities like food, social unrest becomes almost inevitable.
Water Scarcity
According to The Guardian, nearly 50% of the global population already faces some degree of water shortage.
By 2030, the Global Commission on the Economics of Water estimates demand for freshwater will exceed supply by 40%.
This growing imbalance poses a direct threat to global food security.
Agriculture accounts for approximately 70% of global freshwater use, according to the Global Commission on the Economics of Water.
Regions responsible for growing staple crops such as wheat, rice, and corn are particularly vulnerable to prolonged droughts, erratic rainfall, and the overextraction of groundwater.
Water Scarcity and Food Production
More than half of the world’s food production depends on regions where water availability is increasingly unstable.
These areas are critical for feeding billions, yet they face mounting challenges from ecosystem destruction and mismanaged resources.
For example, agricultural subsidies often encourage inefficient irrigation, wasting vast amounts of water and worsening shortages.
Water scarcity is also a geopolitical issue.
As noted by the Global Commission on the Economics of Water, nations like Brazil and India must balance domestic water needs with demands for food exports.
Meanwhile, disputes over shared water resources, such as the Nile and Mekong rivers, illustrate how tensions over water can spark conflict.
The effects of water scarcity ripple across the global food system.
Reduced crop yields, soaring food prices, and increased competition for diminishing resources make access to affordable, nutritious food an even greater challenge for billions.
Privatization and Exploitation of Water Resources
This is a topic we’ve written about in the Survival Scout before. It’s a growing issue we all need to be aware of.
According to Our Santa Fe River, hedge funds and corporations, including Goldman Sachs and Citigroup, are buying up water rights globally, calling it the "oil of the 21st century."
Wealthy investors like T. Boone Pickens have secured enormous water reserves, gaining control over billions of gallons annually.
This commodification of water creates competition between private companies and farmers.
The result is that farmers struggle to secure affordable access for irrigation.
The impact on food production is stark: Higher costs and reduced availability of water for agriculture further destabilize global food systems.
[Related Read: Water Wars: The Next Global Conflict over Diminishing Freshwater Resources]
The War on Farmers
Farmers worldwide are facing unprecedented challenges, from government overreach to restrictive regulations.
In the United States and abroad, these policies are dismantling small farms, undermining food production, and concentrating agricultural power in the hands of a few.
This growing assault on farming is a direct threat not only to farmers, but also to global food security as a whole.
United States Government Policies Squeezing Farmers Out
American farmers are increasingly pressured by burdensome regulations that restrict how they can farm.
The Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 is a glaring example, providing incentives for farmers to leave their land idle under conservation programs like the Conservation Reserve Program.
According to the legislation, billions are allocated to pay farmers not to farm, along with heavy-handed restrictions on fertilizer use and crop selection.
These policies make it harder for small and family farms to compete. State laws further compound the problem.
In states like Minnesota, gardeners and seed libraries must obtain permits, label seeds, and conduct expensive germination tests. Failure to comply can result in fines as high as $7,500. Critics argue that these laws protect big agriculture at the expense of community resilience.
[Related Read: Protect Your Seeds. Lawmakers Are Coming for Them.]
The Global Attack on Farming
The war on farmers isn’t limited to the United States. Similar policies around the world have created disastrous food shortages:
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The Netherlands: The Dutch government’s nitrogen reduction policies have led to widespread farmer protests. Many farmers are being forced to sell their land, while restrictions on livestock numbers threaten to decimate the country’s agricultural sector.
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Sri Lanka: The government banned chemical fertilizers in 2021 to transition to organic farming. The result? A catastrophic collapse in crop yields, economic turmoil, and widespread hunger.
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Zimbabwe: Land reform policies under Robert Mugabe’s regime led to the seizure of commercial farms and their redistribution to inexperienced, small farm holders. Once known as Africa’s breadbasket, Zimbabwe continues to struggle with chronic food shortages decades later.
Corporate Control of Agriculture
As small farms disappear, corporate entities are consolidating power over food production.
In the United States, four major companies—Tyson, Cargill, JBS, and National Beef—control 85% of the beef market.
JBS, for example, is a Brazilian-owned corporation with significant influence over United States meat supplies. Companies like WH Group, a Chinese corporation, own large portions of the United States pork industry.
This foreign control over key food sources poses significant risks.
The push toward alternative protein sources, such as lab-grown meat and insect-based food, adds another layer of concern.
Tyson and Cargill, for example, are heavily investing in plant-based and insect protein startups, which some fear could shift food systems away from traditional farming.
When farmers are regulated out of business, food production drops, prices rise, and access to affordable, nutritious food becomes increasingly uncertain.
As Shad Sullivan of the R-CALF USA Private Property Rights Committee warns, “Millions would starve overnight under global sustainability initiatives.”
Cyberattacks on the Food Sector
The cybersecurity threat to the food industry is growing… and it’s expected to get worse.
As the food and agriculture industry becomes more reliant on technology, it also becomes increasingly vulnerable to cyberattacks.
Advanced systems like GPS-guided tractors, automated feeding systems, and AI-driven crop management tools offer efficiency, but expose critical vulnerabilities.
According to the Food and Agriculture Information Sharing and Analysis Center (Food and Ag-ISAC), ransomware attacks are the most prevalent form of cybercrime in the agri-food sector, making up over 50% of all incidents.
The consequences of these attacks go beyond financial loss—they directly threaten food security.
Several high-profile attacks over the last few years illustrate the severe risks:
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In 2021, JBS, the world’s largest meat producer, faced a ransomware attack that forced the closure of all its American beef plants, affecting nearly 20% of the country’s meat supply. The company paid an $11 million ransom in Bitcoin to restore operations.
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In 2024, Schreiber Foods, one of Wisconsin's largest cheese manufacturers, suffered a cyberattack that shut down its plants and distribution centers for five days, creating disruptions across the dairy supply chain.
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That same year, American agricultural equipment manufacturer AGCO experienced a ransomware attack that delayed tractor sales during the critical planting season, significantly impacting farm productivity.
The food sector’s increasing reliance on interconnected digital systems makes it a prime target for cybercriminals.
FBI Special Agent Gene Kowel has warned that the risks to farms, ranches, and food processing facilities are “growing exponentially” due to outdated systems unable to withstand modern threats.
These attacks can lead to devastating consequences:
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Disruption of Supply Chains: Cyberattacks on critical systems like storage facilities or transportation networks can delay food distribution, leading to spoilage or shortages.
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Tampering with Operations: Hackers can manipulate key systems, such as feeding schedules for livestock or storage temperatures for perishable goods, causing operational failures and food waste.
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Threats to Food Safety: Attacks on industrial control systems (ICS) can alter ingredient lists or allergen information, putting consumers’ health at risk.
The Food Sector Is Underprepared
Despite the growing threat, the food and agriculture industry lags in cybersecurity preparedness.
In 2024, food-related industries reported an average of 40 cyber incidents per quarter, yet many farmers and producers remain unaware of the risks.
According to a Forbes report, a significant portion of the sector still relies on legacy systems that were never designed to handle sophisticated cyberattacks.
One alarming example occurred in Switzerland, where a ransomware attack disabled a farmer’s automated milking robot, resulting in the death of a pregnant cow and financial losses.
Are You Prepared for Food Shortages?
Here are some ways you can prepare your family for food shortages now:
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Stay aware. Stay aware so you can prepare. When you hear the news discussing these particular choke points, pay attention. Know what’s coming from where so you can better anticipate delays and shortages.
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Anticipate shortages. Think ahead. What are items you can’t live without? Keep extra medications and batteries on hand just for this reason. Fill your pantry with long-term emergency food.
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Be resourceful. If there is a major supply chain disruption and you can’t find what you need, be resourceful. For example, during the first wave of COVID-19, we found ways to bake bread without yeast. There are also household items, such as baking soda and vinegar, that you can use for a variety of cleaning tasks.
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Support local farmers. Shop at the local farmers’ market or butcher shop. Make connections with these farmers for the future.
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Start hobby farming. If your area allows hobby farming, now is the time to get ducks or chickens.
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Grow your own food. Get heirloom seeds and start your own veggie garden today. Learn other ways to garden indoors and without much water.
In liberty,
Elizabeth Anderson
Preparedness Advisor, My Patriot Supply
